Lately, several factors have contributed to a slightly bullish outlook for global oil prices over the medium term. The most immediate factor in recent days lies in the Trump administration’s declaration of its intent to withdraw the sanctions waivers granted to countries such as China, India and Turkey to purchase Iranian crude. Such a move could remove over 1mm barrels of supply as soon as May 2nd. Ostensibly, other OPEC members cantap their spare capacity to meet this demand, however tensions are once again on the rise around a potential closure of the Straits of Hormuz.
Remaining in the geopolitical sphere, sanctions on Venezuela and the prospects of renewed conflict escalation in Libya also add to the bullish picture.
However, while these factors can be interpreted as positive from the perspective of other OPEC members, they will be anxious not too let prices run too high and spark additional investment in US Shale oil producers, which remains a market that has yet to prove its long-term viability. The US Shale oil industry, which underpins America’s oil production revolution, is at a pivotal phase, and the next 2 – 3 years will be critical proving its value proposition.
Critics argue that the industry’s ability to generate an acceptable return on capital is a mirage, citing well production levels that have not met the expectations set by producers in the last 3 to 5 years.The fear is that going forward, more drilling activity will need to take place to sustain production, resulting in still yet greater spending by producers than previously estimated, which is easier done for them against a higher oil price backdrop and easier access to capital under such circumstances.
Given the very real threat posed to OPEC by US shale producers, it is our expectation that OPEC will focus its efforts on starving the shale sector of capital, and thus need to keep a lid on prices for the time being and hope that the shale sector will begin to experience significant failures to maintain production and with it help bring an end to this challenging chapter in OPEC’s history. Therefore, we are not bullish on the oil price from current prices.
More Details about Black Pearl Capital – Reza Irani
Reza Irani-Kermani was born in the city of Tehran, Iran and studied at a French School, Lycée Razi till 1980. He further pursued his higher education from the famous Complexe Scolaire de Valbonne, Sophia Antipolis, Valbonne in France. This was the same institute from where he earned his International Baccalaureate. Reza then went to Birmingham in United Kingdom, to get along with his specialised education in Production Engineering and Commerce at the University of Birmingham. After getting his degree in Engineering, he started working with the Management Investment and Trade Ltd “MIT” in London at a Clerk position. Reza Irani himself got into the trading business in the year 1990 and soon became a General Manager in the year 1991 out of all the hard work and dedication. This was the time when he led MIT to become one of the biggest global trading entities in foreign exchange ,with a daily turnover of $11 Billion.
By the year 1993, MIT was targeting the major Chinese markets for their future business and going by the same perspective, MKS sold a part of its business shares to Po Sang Bank. That was the time when Reza was heading the MIT’s London office but within no time he realized that MIT is not going to get much benefit whilst targeting the Chinese markets.
Reza Irani then got to lead the bullion and foreign exchange trading department and he served on to the same role until the year 1997 due to the 3 years contractual obligation laid on him by AMC. Reza Irani-Kermani then got associated with Abela Corporation as a proud board member to a big network of companies, including Sogeres SA.
Reza Irani started his own trading firm named “Symphony’ with long term friend Abbas Jafarian. Apart from its major trading portfolios, Symphony was looking into the real estate asset management for a large MENA Fund. Their main function areas came as sourcing, organising, financing and property management of the primary assets.
After witnessing all the big success with Symphony, Reza Irani-Kermani and Abbas Jafarian launched Black Pearl Capital “BPC” in the year 2007 as one of their sole proprietary investment firms which was also involved in the management of certain major Real Estate deals in Eastern and Western Europe regions , whilst placing down their big investments in the Private Equity transactions across the globe.
Reza Irani and his friend then launched a Black Pearl Global Opportunity Fund “BPGOF” where they pooled in all the big investments from BPC Partners’ money.
April 2019 -Given the uncertainty of Brexit and the low interest rate environment, the British Pound has weakened against most currencies and particularly against the Greenback.
As most traders refer to it, “cable” is under pressure due to the fact that the UK government has made a mess of Brexit, driven major investors out due to new legislations targeting non-domiciles and a general lack of interest in the real estate market due to high stamp duties.
Reza Irani Kermani studied at a French School, Lycée Razi until 1980. He continued his high school in Complexe Scolaire de Valbonne, Sophia Antipolis, Valbonne in France where he got his International Baccalaureate. He then travelled to Birmingham in the United Kingdom, where he studied Production Engineering and Commerce at the University of Birmingham. In 1989, upon receiving his degree in Engineering, he started work at Management Investment and Trade Ltd “MIT” in London as a Clerk. MIT was an affiliate of MKS Finance SA, based Geneva, a 24-hour bullion and foreign Exchange trading house. Reza became a trader in 1990 and was promoted to act as General Manager in 1991, when under his management, MIT became one of the largest trading entities in the world in foreign exchange with a daily turnover of $11 Billion.